We are less than 10 days away from witnessing history. The stakes are high as Tunisia will have the world stage on October 23rd. With more than 130 American observers on hand to monitor the National Constituent Assembly elections and many other organizations curious to see what will happen, now is the time to make sure that your personal emergency preparedness plan is in place. My family and I have decided that Wednesday October 19th is our emergency plan cut off date. In other words we will make sure that by that date, we have everything we need to survive 72 hours of chaos should the situation arise.
Optimism pretty much summarizes the mood among security analysts regarding the elections. Although many things could go wrong, the sentiment on the ground is that IF the electoral process works; it will be a smooth transition. Mr. Rashed Al-Ghanoushi, of the Al-Nahda party summarized this point precisely in response to the question: How many votes will you (Al-Nahda) receive?: “We believe we are undoubtedly the largest party, and everyone agrees. All polls state that. How many votes will we win? That will depend on the reliability of the electoral process.
If this ‘reliability’ is questioned or shown to be flawed, we can pretty much expect things to change dramatically. It’s important that we keep in mind that results will be announced “12 days after the day of the elections (October 23rd), but that primary results will be announced progressively as the counts are done.” This period, from October 23rd-November 4th will be critical.
Let’s continue to share good information and work together as we make our way to the 23rd and beyond!
Tunisia Security Update
We will continue to monitor the situation on the ground and keep you updated with relevant, practical, and big picture analysis.