Intel Challenges

ON MAY 25TH THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE WAS 100% ACCURATE…SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN (1) SIGNIFICANT CHANGE:  The electoral panel organizing the poll for Tunisia’s constituent assembly said Thursday it had postponed the vote to October 16…EVERYTHING ELSE STILL APPLIES…UNLESS THEY DECIDE TO CHANGE IT AGAIN

If you are having trouble keeping up with all the security news in Tunisia…you are not alone.  The recent issue regarding the Tunisian elections is a great example of just how complex and challenging it is to obtain and confirm information.

On Tuesday May 24th,  at about 1230pm we received information that the elections would take place on the original July 24 date.  In order to verify the information we conducted a few searches and to our surprise here’s what we found:

• At 2:09pm Aljazera published a piece entitled “Tunisian elections:  Gone till October“, even more interesting was the sub headline:  The decision to postpone elections in Tunisia will allow citizens to first test their mettle in an empowered society.  The piece was written by Dr Larbi Sadiki who is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter
• At 2:30pm Reuters went forward with an article stating:  “Tunisian govt confirms July 24 election date“.  This information, they claimed came from a government spokesman.
• Finally, Agence France-Presse (AFP), confirmed that Tunisia will maintain July elections. According to the article, a government spokesman stated:  “We are committed to offering the commission all the means it needs to organize these elections.”

Putting the pieces together

Now that we know the date, we can prepare a game plan for the grand event.  Even if you will not be residing in Tunisia a few weeks before and after the elections, it is important that you understand the importance of this historic transition.

If we read between the lines, we can clearly see that there will be a lot of tension during the weeks leading up to the elections and after the results.  We have to remember that the reason why they thought of delaying the elections in the first place was because the commission in charge of organizing them publicly stated that they did not have “enough time to hold an election on July 24th”.  Among other challenges, the committee pointed to the great hurdle of registering over seven million voters.

Other logistical challenges such as training 6,000 voter registration agents and setting up 1,500 registration centers and 8,000 voting centers, are also going to test the abilities of the committee and the patience of the Tunisian people.

More importantly, if the elections have even the slightest trace of fraud, they run the risk of losing all creditability.  Within any good Risk Management plan, one has to acknowledge the known, the unknown, and the unknowable.  We know the elections will be held on July 24th.  We know that at least (2) weeks before that date there will be an ebb and flow of challenges.  We know that although the elections will be a great challenge for the Tunisian people, they have a great desire for peace and stability.  We know that Ramadan (which tends to have a calming effect on the general population will start (7) days after the elections.  What is unknown is the different levels of reactions both in the days leading up to the elections and immediately after.  Beyond that, in the realm of the unknowable there are many (as Prime Minister Beji Caid Essebsi stated) “secret forces“, that obviously we can not account for.

Still as we prepare for the worst and hope for the best, we can take heart in the words of the brilliant Tunisian poet Abut al-Qasim al-Shabi:

If, one day, a people desires to live, then fate will answer their call.

And their night will then begin to fade, and their chains break and fall.

The curfew has been reduced by four hours and is now being enforced between midnight and 4:00 am (Source:  AFP, 14 May 2011).

Although the news is definitely positive; it’s not back to business as usual.  Since the curfew was mainly in reaction to security incidents that took place  in Mnihla, Intilaka, Ibn Khaldoun, El-Mourouj V, Tunis suburbs such as Kram as well as the city of Kasserine; you can be assured that these places will continue to have a heighten sense of security alertness.

Between midnight and 4:00 a.m.

Interestingly enough, research shows that most violent crimes occur between midnight and 4am. (Source:  Criminal Investigation, by Wayne W. Bennett, 2006).

Additionally, as far as ATM incidents are concerned most occur at night, “with the highest risk between midnight and 4 a.m”.  Another statistic which pertains to the United States, but is relative to Tunis, between midnight and 4 a.m., approximately “80% of all fatally injured drivers have been drinking“.

Whether there is a curfew in place or not, it is safe to say that it’s always a good practice to use extra caution between midnight and 4:00am.

There is a persistent rumor that the current curfew will change from starting at 9pm to Midnight.

Normally, State television will break the news and confirm the Interior Ministry’s decision.

We will keep you updated…

Strategic Curfew

“Curfew…what curfew?”  was the reply my neighbor gave me when I asked him how long did he think it would last.  It appears that the curfew which was reinstated on May 7th is not being as widely enforced as  previous ones…or so that’s how it appears to the average civilian.  In fact if you walk through the streets at night you might not even know that there was curfew in place.  In some places coffee shops and small convenience stores remain open into the late  night hours and people continue to roam about freely. Yet, make no mistake about it; there is a curfew, but it’s more of a strategic curfew.

Since the newly imposed curfew, Tunisian security forces have arrested more than “600 individuals implicated in various crimes”. (Source:  EnglishNew, 10 May 2011).  Additionally, a total of 629 people have been arrested for “involvement in crimes such as robbery, assault and destruction of public and private property.

Who’s to blame for the escalation of violence and the return of scattered protests?  In an interview on Sunday, Tunisian interim Prime Minister Beji Caid Essebsi blamed “secret forces”, without saying too much.

At least 4 people were killed in the acts of violence that plagued the capital during the weekend and since most of the violence took place in the Ettadhamen district in western Tunis, it’s important we know just where Ettadhamen is located.  

Cite Ettadhamen…

Also known as At-Tadaman, Cite Ettadhamen is a town and commune in the Ariana Governorate of Tunisia.  Cite Ettadhamen is considered one of the “poorest places in Tunis” (Source:  People Forum, 8Mar 2011).  In fact the violence and activities that  took place in Ettadhmane last weekend was a major reason why the Tunisian authorities to declared the curfew. Ettadhamen, a  district with high unemployment is located outside Tunis and  is one of “several areas across the country that has been rocked with violence over the past several days (Source:  Yahoo New, 8 May 2011).

Just to give you an idea about the population of Cite Ettadhamen, between the multiplicities of La Marsa, Carthage, and Sid Bou Said there are approxiamelty 111,090 residents and as of 2006 there were  118,486 residents residing within Cite Ettadhmanen.

To see exactly where Cite Ettadmanen is located click on this link…

Curfew Developments

Although it is unknown how long the curfew will remain in place, the interior and defence ministries in a statement carried by state media TAP, called on the population to “show civic duty and strong responsibility in order to help calm the situation and for its return to normal” (Source:  RNW, 8 May 2011). 

There are rumors of the curfew being pushed back to Midnight or perhaps  it will be lifted all together.  Perhaps, authorities will use this weekend to assess the situation and review the effectiveness of the curfew.

Untill then it is recommended to abide the curfew and continue to use extra vigilance in your day-to-day activities.

Safety doesn’t happen by accident.  ~Author Unknown

Day of Rage

If you have been following the various revolutions  throughout the region,  you probably have picked up on a similar pattern, namely the fact that  most intense protests take place on Fridays.  From Yemen to Libya, Tunisia to Syria, each have had their ‘Day of Rage‘.  With that said, we should always take extra precautions on Fridays and plan our week accordingly.  Attending an outdoor event on a Friday afternoon for example, would probably not be a good idea considering the current security situation.

Our last ‘day of rage’ was back on February 25th, when protesters demanded the  resignation of then Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi.  As always the bulk of the action took place downtown, but the heighten security presence was felt all throughout the country.  As a general rule pertaining to Fridays, it would be smart to avoid major events, large public gatherings, and going downtown if at all possible.

The day of rage is not just limited to local politics, geopolitics and regional disturbances also play a major factor.  On February 25th many Tunisians were also screaming “Gaddafi out!”  While it is difficult to predict the next day of rage, we can make practical contingency plans to prepare for them. 

Day of Rage Preparation

We would like to stress that although we are focusing on Fridays, security challenges can happen on any day of the week.  As such it is important that we have the following measures always in place:

Remember that after a major crisis, the  first 72 hours are the most critical…

-Have at least 3 days worth of fresh water and wholesome food.

-Have a plan A,B,C regarding communication.

-Have a positive mental attitude.

Although not directly connected, the rage usually beings after the Friday prayers which end at or about 2:oo pm.  The timing is convenient for protest organizers and unfortunately it also benefits people who simply enjoy creating chaos.  Additionally, the rage is usually counter with either a stricter curfew or martial law, so be prepared to stay in doors for a long duration.

Another reason to stay away from protests

A 25-year-old man was killed when troops opened fire to disperse stone-throwing protesters in fresh anti-government demonstrations in Tunisia at the weekend.  (Source, news24, 9/5/2011)

As interesting as they may appear you would do best to stay away from protests and mob gatherings.  Additionally, when the rage spills over it is best to avoid government buildings, police stations, large shopping centers, and open markets.

Not all is negative…

Tunisia has set up an independent body for elections planned in July to shape the country’s post-revolution future.  According to analysts “the creation of the promised independent electoral body to oversee the vote suggests a step in the right direction.”(Source, al jazeera, 10/5/2011).

Hopefully we will avoid another ‘day of rage’ and instead begin to see more days of hope and progress as we continue our adventure here in Tunisia.

All of civility depends on being able to contain the rage of individuals.
Joshua Lederberg