“Empowering Expats/Travelers with relevant security information.”
February 19th, 2016
Greetings, I wanted to share this video an update on the developing situation in Libya and more importantly how this could impact Tunisia.
First anyone that claims they know what’s happening or what’s going to happen in Libya is not being honest…at best they’re making an educated guess…
One thing that’s for sure regarding Libya is that something has to give…
The International Community is waiting for a political consensus before taking action…
Once this is accomplished then we will see some sort of response ranging from air strikes to the unlikely scenario of an International Collation with boots on the ground…
IMPACT ON TUNISIA
So let’s say that big news comes out and everyone is raving about the NEW Libyan government, consensus, etc… (Well as Informed Expats living in Tunisia…this is our signal that something BIG will happen in Libya)
What will happen?
Well as with trying to guess what will happen in Libya…there’s a lot of speculation on how developments in Libya would actually impact Tunisia….to make sense of it all let’s break it down into 3 categories What We Know / What Experts Predict / Worst Case Scenario ..i.e Speculation
Here’s what we know….
- Publicly Tunisia is against a foreign intervention in Libya. However…
- The Tunisian Prime Minister has already authorized governors in the southeast regions to form regional committees to “draw up a plan for each governorate to successfully face…exceptional events that could occur.”
What Experts Say May happen…
Tunisia Cannot Escape the Consequences of Military Intervention in Libya –
A renewal of massive Western air strikes in Libya would undoubtedly push at least another million Libyan refugees across the border into Tunisia. Such a great number of Libyan refugees will make the situation untenable, because no small country like Tunisia, which has limited natural resources, could withstand a sudden increase of its population by almost one third. -Professor Jawed Zouari
Worst Case Scenario ..i.e Speculation
Objective in Libya to neturalize ISIS threat and strengthen the government. Western intelligence officials believe that up to 6,500 ISIS fighters — twice the number previously thought — have relocated to Libya.
Action – Reaction
As a response to a Western Strike ISIS may comeback with coordinate attacks across several countries including Tunisia. This has already happened in the past so it’s not much of a stretch to consider.
Such an event along with the current economic challenges & weaken political unity could cause a lot trouble for Tunisia.
Let’s take a step back. NOBODY really knows what’s going to happen but we do know that whatever happens in Libya will impact Tunisia.
On the positive side…
Tunisian Security Forces remain active, and Tunisia continues to receive wide support from the international community. Additionally, this new security development is NOT aimed at foreigners etc.
Still we need to exercise caution and remain informed. A practical way to prepare for unexpected days of chaos is by putting together a EMERGENCY KIT or Home Emergency Bag….
There’re lots of ways to go about this and each individual person or family will have their own unique needs and requirements. Here are some general guidelines:
- Think 72 hours supply.
- 3 days of food/water/ essential supplies such as medicine etc.
- Additionally, basic services such as electricity, gas, water, sewage treatment and telephones may be cut off for days or even a week, or longer. Your supplies kit should contain items to help you manage during these outages.
@DavidSecurity | Feel free to leave in your comments/ questions.
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